This week was tailor-made for short-dated options. Geopolitical binary events — the kind where one headline flips everything — drove some of the most unusual flow we’ve seen in months. Four plays stood out. Here’s the quick breakdown.

1. The Ceasefire Squeeze — SPY & QQQ

Late Tuesday, the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire — and vol sellers got torched almost instantly.

The Dow soared 1,325 points. The S&P 500 gained 2.51%. The Nasdaq jumped 2.8%. Hedge funds scrambled to close out bets against U.S. stocks at the fastest pace since the pandemic-era market crash of March 2020, according to Goldman Sachs’ trading desk. Anyone who had been systematically selling calls into elevated implied vol got squeezed hard and fast. The traders who quietly loaded near-dated calls going into the binary event? They had a very good Wednesday morning.

But here’s the catch heading into next week: Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf accused the U.S. of violating three terms within Iran’s 10-point proposal, pointing to Israel striking Lebanon, a drone entering Iranian airspace, and restrictions on uranium enrichment. The S&P 500’s 2.2% post-ceasefire rally may be premature — the ceasefire remains fragile, and oil prices, though off their peak, remain 44% above pre-war levels. Vol may not stay suppressed. JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock are all scheduled to report on Tuesday, April 14 — and how management teams frame Q1 will matter just as much as any ceasefire headline.

2. SpaceX Proxy Plays — RKLB & ASTS

You still can’t buy SpaceX directly. So traders are using the next best things — Rocket Lab (RKLB) and AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) — as levered proxies for the most anticipated IPO in market history.

SpaceX could file its IPO prospectus with the SEC imminently, potentially raising over $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation. That filing speculation alone moved the sector: Rocket Lab jumped when the reports surfaced, and AST SpaceMobile saw similar gains that session. Specifically, Rocket Lab shares climbed approximately 11%, AST SpaceMobile gained about 12%, Planet Labs advanced over 10%, and Firefly Aerospace soared nearly 20%.

Traders on Polymarket assign a 52% implied probability that SpaceX goes public by June 30, 2026, and 93% by December 31, 2026. That’s a tight catalyst window. And RKLB isn’t just riding hype — Rocket Lab generated $602 million in revenue for full-year 2025, up 38%, with record 38% GAAP gross margins and a $1.85 billion backlog. Rocket Lab’s backlog now exceeds $2 billion, including a $190 million hypersonic test contract with the Department of Defense. Cash and marketable securities hit $977 million, up 121% year-over-year. That’s a real business, not a momentum trade. The call buyers this week had a fundamental floor underneath them.

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3. Energy Hedges — OXY & XLE

While the crowd was buying the ceasefire rally in equities, a quieter group was buying puts on energy. Smart timing.

The oil trade that defined the first quarter of 2026 broke on Wednesday. XLE fell 4.7% — its worst single-session loss since April 10, 2025. XOP dropped 6.3%, also its worst day in exactly a year. The chain reaction was straightforward: President Trump announced a conditional two-week ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz reopening, sending WTI crude futures down more than 18% on Wednesday — the sharpest single-session drop since April 2020.

Occidental Petroleum (OXY) fell 6.26% on the session, closing near $59. OXY carries the sharpest upstream leverage in the group, operating in the Permian Basin, Rockies, and the Middle East and North Africa — direct exposure to the conflict zone. The put buyers weren’t making a macro call on energy forever. They were hedging a specific, time-limited risk. The current Brent contract trades near $95 a barrel, while December WTI futures are pricing oil in the mid-to-low $70s — the market is already modeling a prolonged ceasefire into forward curves. That 14-day clock is still running.

4. The TeraWulf Spike — WULF

This one flew under the radar, but the numbers were hard to dismiss. Stock investors purchased 191,521 call options on TeraWulf — an increase of 46% compared to the typical volume of 131,061 call options. WULF traded up $0.98 on the session, hitting $19.03.

The story behind it matters. Google committed $1.4 billion to enhance the Lake Mariner data center operated by TeraWulf, with the deal allowing Google to acquire warrants that could potentially elevate its ownership stake to approximately 14%. TeraWulf’s stock rose 6.8% in premarket trading following that announcement. Management has highlighted continued traction in contracted capacity — about 522 critical IT MW tied to over $12.8 billion in long-term, credit-enhanced customer contracts — supporting the AI/HPC infrastructure thesis.

Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target on WULF to $30 from $24, keeping an Overweight rating. The next major catalyst arrives May 18, 2026, when TeraWulf reports Q1 2026 earnings — and with WULF’s beta of 3.14, any guidance on facility expansion at Lake Mariner will likely move the stock sharply in either direction. The call buyers this week are betting the market hasn’t fully repriced the crypto-miner-to-hyperscaler-infrastructure pivot yet. Hard to argue with the logic.

The Bottom Line

Four completely different trades. Same underlying discipline: each one was built around a specific, identifiable catalyst — not noise, not momentum chasing. The options market this week was reading the tape, not gambling on it. Going into next week, keep two things on your radar: the fragility of the 14-day ceasefire and any SpaceX S-1 news. Either one can reset positioning across multiple sectors in a hurry.

For informational and educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Trading involves risk, including loss of principal.

— The Active Trader Daily Editorial Desk