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Meta Is Down 14% in 2026.

Here’s the thing about Meta right now: the stock is doing one thing, and the business is doing something entirely different.

The market has spent most of 2026 treating META like a company losing control of its spending. And yes, the numbers are big. Meta raised its full-year 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $125 billion to $145 billion, up from a prior range of $115 billion to $135 billion, and more than it spent in 2024 and 2025 combined. That’s the kind of number that makes investors flinch. It made them flinch hard, too. The stock fell roughly 6% to 7% in after-hours trading on the Q1 earnings release alone.

But here’s what that reaction is missing.

The actual business, quarter to quarter, is accelerating. Q1 2026 revenue came in at $56.31 billion, up 33% year over year, beating analyst expectations of $55.52 billion. That’s not a slowdown. That’s the fastest top-line growth Meta has posted in years. Ad impressions across the family of apps rose 19%, and the average price per ad climbed 12%. Both metrics moved in the right direction simultaneously, which almost never happens at this scale. Operating income hit $22.87 billion, with a 40.6% operating margin, even as total costs rose 35% year over year.

Slight tangent, but it matters: Meta ended Q1 2026 with $81.18 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities, while generating $32.23 billion in operating cash flow in the quarter alone. The AI buildout is happening from a position of real financial strength, not strain. There’s a difference between a company spending aggressively because it has no choice and a company spending aggressively because it can. Meta is the latter.

So what’s the actual debate here?

The skeptic case is reasonable. Meta is a buyer of AI services, not a seller. Alphabet and Amazon are spending heavily on AI infrastructure too, but they’re also selling cloud computing to the rest of the world, which gives investors a cleaner return-on-investment story. Meta’s AI investment runs inward. It improves recommendations, ad targeting, content relevance. That’s harder to model. Harder to see. Harder to value.

The bull case is just as valid. According to IDC data, Meta held 69.2% of the smart glasses market in Q1 2026, and just this week launched a new lower-priced Meta Glasses line starting at $299 to press that lead further. Family daily active people averaged 3.56 billion in March 2026, up 4% year over year. Management has also committed that 2026 operating income will exceed 2025 levels even as it steps up infrastructure investment. Meanwhile, the company is trimming headcount to offset rising costs. That’s a company tightening while it builds.

What’s interesting is the analyst consensus hasn’t moved nearly as much as the stock. As of late June 2026, the median analyst price target sits around $840, based on coverage from 38 or more analysts, the majority of whom carry a Buy rating. The stock is trading near $565. That gap doesn’t stay open forever.

The question isn’t whether Meta is spending a lot. It clearly is. The question is whether 3.56 billion daily active people, a 33% revenue growth rate, a 40.6% operating margin, and the most widely distributed AI platform in the world is worth more than the market is currently paying for it. On fundamentals alone, most of the evidence points in one direction.

Worth a closer look at current levels.

For informational and educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Trading involves risk, including loss of principal.