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Nvidia Is 11% Off Its May High. The Valuation Is Near a Multi-Year Low.

Here is the thing about Nvidia right now. The fundamentals have never been stronger. The stock is trading near its lowest forward valuation in years. And Wall Street is still arguing about whether it is a buy.

That tension does not last forever.

NVDA hit an all-time intraday high of $236.54 on May 14, 2026. As of this week, it is trading around $211 — roughly 11% off that peak — after a pullback driven primarily by China export headlines and a broader semiconductor sector rotation. The business itself? Largely untouched.

The Numbers Behind the Noise

This is not a story about a company losing its edge. In fiscal year 2026, Nvidia posted revenue of $215.94 billion, a 65% year-over-year increase, with net income of $120.07 billion. Then Q1 FY27 landed and took it to another level: record revenue of $81.6 billion, up 85% from a year ago, with GAAP net income of $58.3 billion. That is net income more than tripling versus Q1 FY26. Gross margins came in at 74.9% GAAP and 75.0% non-GAAP. Trailing twelve-month revenue now sits at $253.49 billion.

For context: the company guided Q2 FY27 revenue at $91.0 billion, plus or minus 2% — and explicitly noted it is not assuming any Data Center compute revenue from China in that outlook.

• Q1 FY27 revenue: $81.6B (up 85% YoY); Data Center revenue $75.2B (up 92% YoY)
• Q2 FY27 revenue guidance: ~$91.0B; street consensus near $93.5B
• Q2 FY27 EPS consensus: ~$2.08-$2.12 (non-GAAP)
• Forward P/E: ~20-22x (Goldman Sachs notes 21.7x is near average S&P 500 levels, well below Nvidia’s 5-year avg of ~72x)
• 12-month avg analyst price target: $301.62 (61 analysts, Strong Buy consensus)
• Next earnings report: August 26, 2026 (after market close, confirmed)

What Is Weighing on the Stock

China. That is the short answer. The longer one is more layered.

Nvidia has said clearly it is not assuming any Data Center compute revenue from China in its Q2 guidance. CEO Jensen Huang has been blunt about it: Nvidia’s market share in China has effectively fallen to zero in the AI GPU market. There were no Data Center Hopper product shipments to China in Q1 FY27, compared to $4.6 billion a year earlier — a headwind that is now fully baked in. And yet the company still posted $81.6 billion in quarterly revenue.

This week, Wells Fargo issued a note saying that any potential China H200 GPU reopening may be more limited than investors are hoping. The firm estimates Nvidia could sell roughly 200,000 H200 units into China if approvals move forward, generating around $6 to $8 billion in revenue at an average selling price of $35,000 to $40,000 per chip. Wells Fargo called it a modest incremental positive — not a major shift. The stock slipped on the note. That reaction is telling.

Reports surfaced this week that China may allow leading domestic AI companies like ByteDance and Alibaba to purchase a limited number of H200 chips — with restrictions, approval requirements, and volume likely capped below 200,000 units total. Chinese regulators have not yet formally authorized customer purchases. The timeline and actual scale remain open questions.

Here is what the bears keep missing: the China GPU revenue is already gone. It was excluded from Nvidia’s own guidance months ago. When a company removes an entire market from its revenue assumptions and still puts up these numbers, that tells you something fundamental about the business underneath.

On the Vera CPU front: Nvidia has begun telling Chinese cloud customers they can place orders for its new Arm-based Vera server CPU, with deliveries potentially starting as early as August 2026. At least one major Chinese cloud provider is preparing an initial order for more than 300 servers, each containing two Vera processors. Initial deployments appear to be planned for overseas data centers, not domestic Chinese facilities — but it is a foothold. The Vera CPU is projected to generate nearly $20 billion in revenue in FY2027 globally.

What Analysts Are Saying This Week

Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore reaffirmed his Overweight rating and $288 price target on NVDA following meetings with company management. Goldman Sachs noted this week that Nvidia’s forward P/E of approximately 21.7x looks compelling — it is close to the average S&P 500 P/E and dramatically below Nvidia’s own 5-year average of around 72x. Wells Fargo, despite issuing the cautious China note, maintained a Buy rating with a $315 price target. Bank of America is also bullish, with a $350 target.

The consensus across 61 analysts: Strong Buy, $301.62 average price target — implying roughly 43% upside from current levels. That spread between where the stock trades and where analysts see fair value is one of the widest in recent memory for a mega-cap name.

Bull / Base / Bear

Bull: Q2 FY27 earnings on August 26 beat the $2.08-$2.12 non-GAAP EPS consensus. Vera CPU orders begin flowing from Chinese cloud providers. Blackwell supply constraints continue easing. Stock moves toward the $270-$310 range where analyst targets cluster.

Base: Earnings roughly in line with guidance. No major China surprise in either direction. Stock grinds toward $240-$260 over the next two quarters as the earnings base continues expanding and the forward multiple gradually gets recognized.

Bear: Export rules tighten further. The Vera CPU path gets formally blocked. AI capital spending from hyperscalers shows early signs of softening. Stock tests the $185-$190 zone, which aligns with the 200-day moving average near $190.

The Technical Picture

The 200-day simple moving average sits near $190, and the stock has held above it throughout the recent weakness. Key support is in the $194-$196 area. A sustained close above $215 would be the first meaningful confirmation of trend recovery toward the all-time high zone.

The all-time intraday high of $236.54 is the level that matters on the upside. At current prices, you are buying Nvidia at roughly the same forward multiple as the average S&P 500 stock — a framing that does not stay quiet for long when the earnings growth rate is running at 85% year over year.

What to Watch Before August 26

• Any formal update on Vera CPU order flow from Chinese cloud providers
• July 15 CPI reading — the first major macro catalyst that could shift momentum or expose new pressure in rate-sensitive tech
• Broader Q2 earnings season tone from hyperscalers — any softening in AI capital spending language would move NVDA
• China H200 approval status — whether Beijing formally clears purchases, and in what volume, is still the single biggest binary risk on the calendar
• Any news on the Kyber NVL144 AI platform timeline, after Nvidia recently denied delay reports

The real question is not whether Nvidia’s AI business is intact. It clearly is. TTM revenue of $253 billion and a profit margin above 63% do not happen at companies losing their footing. The question is whether the market is willing to look past the China headline risk and recognize a company trading at average valuation multiples with far above-average earnings growth. August 26 is when that debate either gets answered — or gets louder.

For informational and educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Trading involves risk, including loss of principal.