Dear Reader,
The Democratic Socialists won big at the polls this election cycle.
They’ve more than tripled their votes in Congress.
And even managed to win the mayor’s office in D.C.
But as terrifying as that is, there’s an EVEN BIGGER threat you should be paying attention to right now.
Frankly, I’m not surprised so many Socialists won.
They’ve pointed out many things that are genuinely wrong right now:
- The middle class is struggling.
- Your dollars aren’t going as far as they used to.
- Big business is in cahoots with the government.
Don’t get me wrong, I’ve spent my whole career warning where Socialism leads.
But fundamentally, these aren’t political problems more handouts will fix.
That’s why I’m stepping forward today.
Because the most dangerous economic force in America right now is EVEN WORSE than Socialism.
It’s managed to quietly take over Washington – long before this election cycle began.
And, based on the results, I’m afraid this will all reach a breaking point in the coming weeks… and have a serious effect on any money you’ve set aside for retirement.
I strongly encourage you to check out my important message, which explains everything you need to know. You can access it free of charge here.
Sincerely,
Dr. Ron Paul
12-Term Former Congressman
Former Presidential Candidate
Washington Insider for Over 50 Years
P.S. I think you’ll agree that one of the most interesting parts of my new video is where I reveal the #1 step Americans can take to protect themselves today from these coming disasters.
Alibaba’s Cloud Revenue Is Accelerating. Its Profit Is Not.
BABA trades around $105-$109 heading into its September-quarter report on November 19, more than 40% below the consensus analyst target of roughly $184. That gap is not an oversight. It reflects a company running two parallel stories at once, and the market’s refusal to price both at face value until the numbers confirm which one is winning.
The Cloud Engine Is Real
AI Cloud and Compute Services revenue in the June quarter reached RMB 48.4 billion, a 45% year-over-year increase driven by public cloud growth and accelerating AI product adoption. That is not a one-quarter spike. AI-related product revenue has now posted triple-digit growth for twelve consecutive quarters. Cloud segment adjusted EBITA jumped 133% to RMB 5.6 billion in that same period, and the segment’s EBITA margin reached about 12%, the highest on record. Management said on the August 20 earnings call that the annualized revenue run rate for AI-related products was about $7.3 billion in the June quarter and that it expects that annualized figure to approach $10 billion next quarter, which would represent the clearest evidence yet that cloud monetization is becoming a durable earnings contributor rather than a capital sink.
Where the Earnings Miss Lives
The problem is what surrounds cloud. Last quarter, Alibaba missed the consensus EPS estimate of $1.94 by $0.68, reporting $1.26. The quarter before that was worse: Q4 FY2026 EPS came in at $0.09 against a $1.12 estimate, a 92% miss. The culprit is domestic e-commerce. In China e-commerce, customer management revenue fell 7% year-over-year in the June quarter, even as the platform added users. Quick commerce investment is compressing domestic margins faster than cloud can offset them.
Analysts expect $1.61 in EPS on $40.25 billion in revenue for the September quarter, which would represent a significant recovery from the Q1 miss. Jefferies raised its price target to $192 with a Buy rating, noting expectations for strong performance specifically in AI Cloud and Compute services. StoneX reiterated Buy at $220, citing the same cloud strength.
The Cross-Border Variable
International e-commerce revenue in the June quarter was RMB 27.8 billion, a 1% decline year-over-year, which matters for traders reading BABA as a proxy for global retail health. Global wholesale, however, grew 7% to RMB 13.9 billion, driven by cross-border value-added services. The divergence tells you something specific: logistics monetization is holding up even as retail transaction volume stalls.
Scenario Framework
Bull case: Cloud EBITA margin holds above 12%, AI-related product revenue reaches or exceeds the $10 billion annualized target discussed on the prior earnings call, and international wholesale sustains mid-single-digit growth. BABA tests resistance toward $125-$130, narrowing the gap to Jefferies’ $192 target over subsequent quarters.
Base case: Cloud accelerates as expected but domestic CMR remains flat to negative. EPS comes in near consensus at $1.61. BABA holds the $100-$110 range. With BABA trading in the mid-$100s ahead of the print and consensus targets near $184, the stock stays rangebound pending clearer domestic margin recovery.
Bear case: Quick commerce losses widen beyond expectations, domestic CMR misses again, and cloud EBITA margin slips below 10% due to GPU cost pressure. BABA revisits the $90 range. The lowest analyst target on the street sits around $160, which still implies considerable downside risk has not been fully modeled into the base.
Trading Framework
The critical technical level is $104.78, flagged as near-term resistance. A close above that level before November 19 would suggest institutional buyers are positioning ahead of results rather than waiting. Volume on the 20-day average is the tell: elevated buying into a range high is constructive; low-volume drift into resistance is not.
Volatility into earnings is the more immediate variable. Alibaba said it will report before the U.S. market opens on November 19, and the overnight gap risk is real in both directions. Position sizing should account for roughly a high-single-digit move on the report itself, consistent with what options markets are currently implying.
Preparation means knowing your levels before management speaks. Cloud EBITA margin above 12% is the green light. A second consecutive domestic CMR miss is the stop signal. Everything else is noise.
