August 24, 2026
Is Intuit’s 48% Drop a Buying Opportunity?
Intuit reports Q4 FY2026 after the close on August 25. At 13.4x forward earnings, the multiple is doing the heavy lifting.
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Intuit sits at $367 today, 48% below its 52-week high of $705. The June low was $252.84. The stock has clawed back roughly 45% from that floor in five weeks, and the market still does not know what to make of the recovery. Tomorrow’s Q4 report, after the close on August 25, is where the argument gets settled, at least in the near term.
The selloff has a clear cause. TurboTax online units were guided to decline roughly 2% for the full year, and a 17% workforce reduction rattled investors who were already anxious about generative AI pulling price-sensitive filers toward free alternatives. Securities class action filings followed. The bear case wrote itself: if AI can file a 1040 for free, what is TurboTax worth?
The problem with that argument is that TurboTax is not the company. In fiscal Q3 2026, QuickBooks Online Accounting grew 22%. The Global Business Solutions segment overall expanded 15%. Credit Karma posted 15% revenue growth on $631 million in quarterly sales, driven by personal loans, auto insurance, and home loans. Management raised full-year revenue guidance to $21.34 to $21.37 billion, implying 13 to 14% growth. Non-GAAP EPS guidance was lifted to $23.80 to $23.85, up 18% year over year.
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Tomorrow’s consensus: $4.27 billion in revenue and $3.59 in EPS. At $367, the stock trades at approximately 13.4x FY2027 estimates. The PEG ratio sits near 0.9. For a business with roughly 100 million customers, an $8 billion buyback authorization, and recurring revenue across four product lines, that is a compressed number by any reasonable historical comparison. Management authorized $8 billion in repurchases at these levels. That is not a coincidence.
Three scenarios: A clean Q4 with stable TurboTax units and intact FY2027 guidance above $23.5 billion opens a credible path toward $450 to $500 over 12 months without heroic multiple assumptions. A consensus-inline result with cautious guidance keeps the stock range-bound near $410 while the legal overhang persists. A guidance cut, or new disclosures tied to the class action proceedings, puts the June low back into play near $253.
Twenty-four analysts carry buy or outperform ratings against two sells. The mean target is $446. Morgan Stanley is the outlier, cutting to Equal Weight with a $335 target in July, citing TurboTax uncertainty and AI monetization risk. That divergence is the trade. One side is right. The close of business tomorrow begins to determine which.
For informational and educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Trading involves risk, including loss of principal.
