Analog Devices heads into its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings release on November 24 carrying one of the cleaner configurations in semiconductors: a record Q3 in the books, above-consensus Q4 guidance on the table, and a restocking wave that, by management’s own admission, has not yet arrived.
What the Numbers Say Before the Report
ADI guided Q4 EPS to $3.71–$4.01 and revenue of $4.2–$4.4 billion, above analyst expectations of $3.53 EPS and $4.1 billion in revenue. The Street is sitting at $3.89 EPS on $4.32 billion in revenue for the quarter. That compares to $2.26 per share on $3.08 billion in revenue a year earlier, implying 72% year-over-year EPS expansion if consensus holds. Beyond Q4, analysts project full fiscal 2026 EPS of $13, up 66.9% year over year, with fiscal 2027 expected to add another 27.5% to $16.57.
The Industrial Story Is the One Worth Watching
Industrial revenue reached $1.97 billion in Q3, up 53% year over year and 10% sequentially, remaining the largest end market at 49% of total revenue, with management attributing the strength to aerospace and defense, automatic test equipment, electronic test and measurement, and automation.
The critical detail is what has not happened yet. More than half of ADI’s industrial subsegments are still more than 10% below historical consumption levels, suggesting room for further recovery. Management stressed that most of the broader industrial portfolio is still shipping below historical consumption levels and that customers have not begun restocking. That is the second leg of the trade, and it has not been triggered.
Where Analysts Are Positioned
Analyst sentiment remains constructive, but the specifics in the original draft were not supported by current, checkable consensus data. As of November 1, 2026, widely followed consensus trackers show an average 12-month price target closer to the low-$470s (not $458), with the published target range spanning roughly $365 to $675; Tristan Gerra (Baird) is at $675 and Harlan Sur (J.P. Morgan) is at $500. TD Cowen’s published target appears to be $475 on October 19. With the current price near $417, the valuation claim in the original draft also did not match current commonly cited ratio snapshots, which show trailing P/E closer to ~50x and forward P/E closer to ~26x.
Three Scenarios Into the Report
Bull case: ADI delivers above the $4.01 high-end of Q4 EPS guidance, management signals that distribution channel restocking has begun, and fiscal 2027 EPS guidance exceeds $16.57 consensus. The stock tests the $475–$500 range.
Base case: Results land in line with company guidance. Management confirms industrial subsegments are still shipping below consumption but flags accelerating order rates. The stock holds near current levels and re-rates modestly higher through year-end.
Bear case: Macro softness in European industrial demand or a pullback in data center capex causes management to guide Q1 2027 conservatively. The stock pulls back toward the $365–$380 support band.
Framework for Active Traders
ADI trades at a trailing P/E near ~50 times and a forward P/E near ~26 times, a spread that reflects the earnings ramp rather than a static valuation. The November 24 report is the inflection test: the market will be watching whether management upgrades its restocking language, not just whether it beats the quarter. Position sizing and stop discipline around that date matter more than the consensus headline number.
