This is the first hard read. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup report Q3 results before the bell today, the first quarterly numbers that fully reflect a Fed that has moved. The FOMC raised rates 25 basis points on September 16, 2026 to 3.75% to 4.00%, its first hike since 2023, and futures continue to imply elevated odds of another move at the December meeting. The 10-year Treasury sits at 5.24%, up roughly 120 basis points year-over-year. The financials ETF (XLF) has fallen about 4% since the September move; the S&P 500 is up about 3% over the same stretch. Today’s NII guidance determines whether that gap widens or closes.

NII: What Each Bank Is Defending

JPMorgan carries the clearest target. After raising its full-year managed NII guidance to approximately $105.5 billion post-Q2, consensus expects Q3 NII to rise about 12% to $26.84 billion. EPS consensus sits near $5.93 on revenue of about $51.2 billion, implying roughly 17% year-over-year growth from the $5.07 reported in Q3 2025. Options price a ±3.6% move against a 10-year average of ±3.4%. The key number is NII ex-Markets: $23.7 billion in Q2, up 4%. If it stalls as deposit betas accelerate, any guidance reaffirmation carries an asterisk.

Wells Fargo is the deposit-sensitivity read. Full-year NII guidance stands at roughly $50 billion. Q3 NII consensus sits at $12.63 billion, up 5.7% year-over-year. Net interest margin was 2.43% in Q2, down 25 basis points year-over-year; management has flagged further compression risk into Q3. WFC is down roughly 10% year-to-date. A cut to the $50 billion guide is the single most likely negative catalyst today.

Citi enters at $2.68 EPS consensus on $23.7 billion revenue, implying 56% earnings growth from $1.72 a year ago. At just over 1x book, it is the cheapest of the four. Q2 ROTCE was 13% against a full-year target above 11%.

Goldman: A Capital Markets Test

Q2 was the comparison nobody wants. JPMorgan equity revenues surged 86% to $6.0 billion; Goldman delivered its best quarter ever with $20.34 billion in net revenue, EPS of $20.98, and equity trading of $7.42 billion, up 72%. Wall Street estimates roughly $38 billion in combined Q3 trading revenue, down from the $47 billion Q2 peak. Goldman CEO David Solomon flagged in September that equities remained strong but FICC softened, and Street models have been watching the expense line closely into Q3. EPS consensus spans $12.90 to $16.42. GS closed at $895.32 last Friday, down 22% from its 52-week high of $1,153.99; options price a ±4.7% move. Equities revenue (consensus $4.68 billion) and expense control will decide the result.

The trading revenue comparison is made harder by a warning that arrived before Q3 even closed. BofA guided Q3 investment banking fees roughly 10–20% below Street estimates, dragging GS, C, and JPM lower in sympathy.

Three Scenarios

Bull: JPM reports NII above $27 billion and reaffirms the $105.5 billion guide. Goldman equities exceed $5 billion. WFC holds its $50 billion target. JPM toward $345, GS toward $930.

Base: JPM meets EPS but signals Q4 NII pressure from deposit cost reset. Goldman beats on equities; expenses rise. WFC holds the full-year range. Stocks stay inside the implied move bands; guidance language is the driver.

Bear: JPM cuts its NII guide as deposit beta acceleration outpaces asset repricing. Goldman FICC deterioration exceeds Solomon’s September warning. WFC narrows its guide to the low end. JPM toward $321, WFC toward early-year support.

Trader Framework

A bank can beat EPS and still sell off if management signals Q4 margin deterioration. Monitor the calls: JPM at 8:30 a.m. ET, Goldman at 9:30, Wells Fargo at 10:00, Citi at 11:00. Size to the scenario range. Morgan Stanley follows tomorrow; today sets that read’s reference point. Discipline over momentum.